«FORSITE-LANDING» at PMEF'19
On June 7, a foresight "landing" of the participants and experts of the Horizon 2100 project landed in St. Petersburg. On the same day, at the Boiling Point site of St. Petersburg, a Youth Foresight session “Modeling a Sustainable Future: Horizon 2100” was organized and held with the support of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives.
«FORSITE-LANDING» AT PMEF'19
International Youth Foresight Session
Modeling a Sustainable Future: Horizon 2100
"How does the youth see the future?"
Scientists, economists, financiers, programmers, writers, forecasters and just ordinary people - everyone, to one degree or another, thinks about the future, close or distant. However, there is a category of a special kind - youth, being the main generator of change, it itself represents the foreseeable future and it to shape the future of the country, civilization and planet. And in many ways from the way the younger generation envisions the contours of this future - optimistic or pessimistic, to what extent, and for how long this vision remains - the level of implementation of this or that, the scenario of its development depends.
On June 7, a foresight "landing" of the participants and experts of the Horizon 2100 project landed in St. Petersburg. On the same day, at the Boiling Point site of St. Petersburg, the Youth Foresight session “Modeling a Sustainable Future: Horizon 2100” was organized and held with the support of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives.
The key areas in which the work was built were formed in accordance with the main trends of SPIEF'19, to which there was timed foresight session:
- "World Economy: Finding a Balance",
- "The future of the Russian economy",
- "National and Global Threats",
- "Science and technology bringing the future closer",
- "Partnership and dialogue of civilizations through the prism of the future."
At the end of the session, each group had to present the results of their work in the form of a presentation, which will be evaluated by experts and determined winners. At the same time, it was planned that the best thoughts, ideas and hypotheses will be included in the generalized presentation that will be presented at the next day June 8, 2019 at the SPIEF.
|More about the project|
The main goal of the project: to motivate thinking young people from different countries with an active life position "turn on" your intellect and carry out a creative search for scientific ideas, hypotheses, sci-fi ideas about the distant future.
Chairman of the Foresight Session Organizing Committee
Expert, candidate of sociological sciences, project manager "Horizon 2100", Chairman of the Council of the Center modeling the future, MP Moscow City Duma of the II convocation.
Expert, candidate of medical sciences, director of a consulting company ICB Professional, member of the Association business management professionals processes (ABPMP Russian Chapter), member of the European Coaching Association.
Expert group "Partnership and dialogue of civilizations through the prism of the future"
Member of the International Expert Jury of the Horizon 2100 Competition, Member of the Union of Journalists of Russia, Director of the Edge of the World Foundation
President of the International Academy of Transport, Co-Chair of the Organizing Committee of the Horizon 2100 Competition
First Deputy Chairman of the Expert Council of the Technological Platform "Technologies for Environmental Development"
Facilitator of the group "Partnership and Dialogue of Civilizations through the Prism of the Future"
Project Manager for Applied Consumer Behavior Research, Institute of Trade
Facilitator of the group "World Economy: Finding a Balance"
International Dispute Resolution Specialist, Rybalkin, Gortsunyan & Partners Law Firm, Candidate of Political Science
Facilitator of the group "Science and technology bringing the future closer"
Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Art. Researcher at IPU RAS, member of the Union of Russian Writers. Head of the Data Science Junior Movement.
Graduate of the Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University M.V. Lomonosov. CEO of "Squadron" company, head of social projects for career guidance and social adaptation of youth.
Art. researcher at VIAPI named after A. Nikonova, Co-founder of the Razvitiesela.rf Platform.
Expert of the group "World Economy: Finding a Balance"
Researcher at the Vologda Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, member of the Association for the Promotion of Foreign Economic Activity, Member of the VED-club "Vedomosti".
More information in the section
14:00 – 14:10 Welcome
14:10 – 14:20 Information on the working procedure, rules, composition of groups, facilitators, experts
14:20 – 14:50 Discussion of the forecast area, trends, needs and actors who will act
14:50 – 15:20 Exit at 2100 and formulate the main call
15:20 – 15:40 Expert consultation
15:40 – 16:10 Preparing to answer the challenge (outlines of the new world)
16:10 – 16:40 Presentation design
14:20 – 16:10 Horizon 2100: vision of the future through the prism of goals sustainable development (Sustainable Development Goals by United Nations Development Program (UNDP))
16:10 – 16:40 Presentation design
14:20 – 15:20 Significant trends - now, and up to the prediction limit (before 2100)
15:20 – 15:40 Consultations for groups 1 - 5
15:40 – 16:10 Significant trends - now, and up to the predicted border (before 2100) (continued)
16:10 – 16:40 Presentation design
16:40 – 17:10 Presentations of the results of the group work. 3 minutes for 1 group
17:10 – 17:30 Expert comments, discussion and rating assignment presentations
17:30 – 17:50 Joint preparation of a general presentation for SPIEF, choice speaker or speakers at SPIEF
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
The work on modeling the future in science and technology began with highlighting the main areas: medicine, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and space colonization. Further, within the framework of the discussion, the semantic filling of each of the spheres took place. The team associates the future of medicine with the disappearance of antibiotics, the emergence of new viruses and new treatments that will appear as a consequence of a number of epidemics. In the field of new technologies, the dominant trend will be the use of nanotechnology in the treatment of diseases. The group members assume that organ transplantation will be more accessible and widespread than today, since the organs will be printed using a 3D printer. In the field of artificial intelligence, the main activities of scientists will be focuses on human cloning and its ethical aspect. One of the important areas of activity of scientists will be ensuring cybersecurity, due to the endless growth of the volume of data and all the widespread practice of cyber attacks. The problem is assumed solve by creating a complex blockchain data protection system. The final scientific trend of the year 2100, participants see an active colonization of space, which will be the solution to the problem of uncontrolled population growth of our planet. Having revealed the main directions, the participants consulted with an expert about the point of bifurcation of technologies, the future of alternative energy resources and features of the use of antibiotics and nanotechnology in the treatment of diseases. The expert opinion was very helpful. Existing theses were detailed and new ideas were proposed. So, in the position of the group the idea of moving the energy generation process into orbit and creating thus energy-vacuum systems and energy paradise on Earth. The expert especially supported the use of nanotechnology in medicine as a solution to the issue of longevity and the improvement of the DNA code. In conclusion, the team concluded that the dominant trends in science and technology, but also the very nature of science. According to the participants, on the horizon 2100 cognitive technologies that will allow us to connect our previously unknown brain capabilities will herald the birth of a qualitatively new science.
Like a number of other groups, the team decided to start with defining the main trends in the development of the world economy on the horizon 2100 During the discussion, how the main trends determined the gradual the extinction of US hegemony and, as an alternative, the growth of influence of the countries of the East, accompanied by trade wars, the merger of TNCs and the active use of hydrogen fuel. Also discussed were trends such as the gradual transition to technocratic state management practices, the completeness of logistics and space transformation, movement and changes in financial the world system to more materialized sources of containment economic processes and blockchain as the implementation of economic and political instruments. However, these ideas did not find the same support among all team members and remained at the stage abstracts. In consultation with an expert, we discussed the likelihood of proposed scenarios and approved the initially announced theses, to which, by mutual agreement, added a leading role supranational institutions.
THE FUTURE OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
The work was supposed to begin with a discussion of trends in the modern Russian economy, but some team members appreciated the discussion of modern threats to the development of the Russian economy and the challenges it faces. In the process of identifying trends, threats and challenges, the team discussed such questions of how to reduce the growth of the Russian economy as a reaction to reduced consumption of hydrocarbons, increased migration, increased automation production, deterioration in the quality of education, growth of corruption and money withdrawal from the economy, and a general decline in economic growth. The greatest resonance among the participants was caused by two questions: is it possible economic growth, in the case of the introduction of "unconditional basic income" and subsidies socially unprotected groups of Russians from the state, and what are the most effective methods of fighting corruption. Communication with an expert did not help to resolve pressing issues. Feeling lack of time, the group began intensive work. The basis the presentation of the team laid the concept of "Russia as a" Garden City ", implying:
- A future in which automated systems will be limited and the central goal will be human development;
- Development of creative, spiritual, personality components - as the main goal "City-Garden", understood as the opposite of "human robotization" and “Transformation of civilization into the Matrix from the movie The Matrix”;
- Environmental development. Green Planet. Lean wasteless production and processing of waste;
- The economy and the state are a single strategic complex, whose only task is the development of personality (people).
NATIONAL AND GLOBAL THREATS
In order to narrow down the topic, participants identified as threats that has already happened (that is, there is a certain precedent), what can predict and predict, as well as what we can influence in some way way. Relationships between national and global identities, earth, information space, and space were identified as areas of forecasting.
During the work, trends were identified based on what are the likely hazards and threats. The participants found it important to note the problem of migration, which is only a “symptom of the disease” - and, therefore, requires treatment (and otherwise it can lead to a disastrous outcome). There was also a trend towards cooperation with countries Asia, as well as the fact that Africa is becoming an area of collision of geopolitical interests of international players.
The session participants discussed that the traditional system of checks and counterbalance and the existing political institutions are beginning to become obsolete - and, therefore, do not respond to the needs of society and must be changed something qualitatively new. Moreover, participants concluded that it is important to ecology and the fact that the problem of environmental pollution and excessive consumption have a strong negative impact, and therefore their global the community starts trying to solve them - cooperation will continue until an effective institution is found that provides this function. The discussion also touched upon demographic trends. It seemed to the participants that the growing imbalance between the populations of countries, expressed in overpopulation in some countries and in an aging, non-renewing population in other countries, would lead to the fact that this would be corrected to more average indicators by certain political courses. One of the most acute topics for discussion was the trend towards the informatization of society. Now the world is increasingly digitalized, which affects not only the ordinary life of citizens, but also the fact that new ways of waging war are emerging. They can be expressed in such phenomena as fake news, hacker attacks and much more. In general, participants positively assess the year 2100 - while taking due actions, all negative consequences of trends can be reduced to zero, and also form a secure community with effective institutions state and supranational power.
PARTNERSHIP AND DIALOGUE OF CIVILIZATIONS
The team began the discussion by discussing modern trends in the interaction of civilizations and highlighting the most significant ones. Some factors of modern reality, such as nationalist trends, proliferation of nuclear weapons, differences in culture and mentality continue to pose a threat to a stable future in the horizon of 2100. Two members of our group wrote an essay on modeling the future. One of them presented his essay, the main theses of which were the need to comprehend the unity of the world, the establishment of universities at the UN and APEC, aimed at the formation of civic consciousness, and transhumanism as a new digital religion. The thesis of world unity found a special response from the rest of the participants. TO the existing theses were supplemented with ideas such as the introduction of a multi-passport (world citizen passports), free excursions around the world as part of acquaintance with foreign culture, introduction of a single currency and a single language. For a long time, the discussion continued about whether the establishment of a single nation in the future was possible. Some participants emphasized attention on global problems uniting humanity, others - on irreconcilable differences between nations. After discussing their vision with an expert, the group leaned towards a compromise option - the desire for the unity of nations based on the conjuncture of modern interethnic relations and potential threats lurking in them. Thus, the team saw the solution in the development of institutions of supranational cooperation, for example, the creation of a supranational rescue service and, most importantly, a change in the nature of human thinking. A transition is needed from Homo Sapience to Homo Spatium, a person who feels part of the universe and does not separate his interests from the interests of everything society.
At the end of the event, the participants made a presentation of their projects. The highest praise was given to the team's work, modeling the future in the world economy. Both the audience and the competent jury highly appreciated the content, the structure of the presentation and the ability to present the material.
During the presentation of projects, it turned out that the visions of various teams overlapped on a number of issues, and on some of them completely coincided. Operating time each of the teams entered a single presentation, which was presented at the official closing of the Horizon: 2100 foresight session on June 8 at the site of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
June 8 at the site of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum during the Session "Horizon 2100. How does the youth see the future?" the participants of FORSIGHT-DESTINATION presented a single presentation as the personification of the vision of the future of modern youth from different countries. Then the awards ceremony for the winners of the "HORIZON 2100" competition took place. The event took place within the framework of the Youth Day of the business program of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with the support of VEB.RF at the stand of the VEB Group “Russia Extends”. The finalists of the Competition were greeted by Olga Yuryevna Makaeva, Deputy General Director of the Monotown Development Fund.
Center for Modeling the Future in Education, Science, Economics and Social and Humanitarian Sphere
Innovative scientific and educational Moscow Aviation University and the Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences
- International Academy of Transport
- Center for Youth Innovation creativity management IPU RAS, Russia
- National Institute of System Entrepreneurship Research, Russia
- Carlos Nemer Consulting-CNC, Brazil
- Fund for Support of Innovations in the Sphere of Culture and Education "EDGE OF THE WORLD"
- Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States, Compatriots, living abroad, and humanitarian cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo)
- Foundation for the Support of Public Diplomacy. A.M. Gorchakova
- Fund for Support and Protection of the Rights of Compatriots Living Abroad
- Public Relations Committee of the Governments of Moscow
- Public benefit non-profit organization "Bridges of Integration", Germany
- Internet resource "All competitions"
- Website "Contests. Grants. Prizes. Festivals"
- Internet portal "Future Now" / Futurenow.ru